1. Mathematical Scoring Formula
The 48-hour probability P(t) is computed as an inspectable weighted sum bounded between [5%, 98%]:
P(t) = Baseline(t) + W_tibo · S_tibo + W_status · S_status + W_cadence · S_cadence + W_milestone · S_milestone - Cooldown(Δt)
Where Baseline(t) is the Poisson arrival baseline (typically 12%), S_tibo represents verified announcement semantic strength, and Cooldown(Δt) exponentially suppresses the likelihood immediately following a confirmed flush.
Tibo Posts Semantic HintWeight: 35%
Natural language extraction via LLM from @thsottiaux tweets. Mentions of "ship", "refresh", "bonus", or "sol limits" heavily boost this factor.
Reset Cooldown DecayWeight: 20%
Historical median gap between resets is 3.2 days. A reset in the last 48 hours strongly reduces near-term refill odds.
OpenAI Incident StatusWeight: 15%
Monitored directly via status.openai.com. Extended degraded performance on Codex models frequently triggers compensatory flushes.
Major Model Launch CadenceWeight: 10%
Historical releases (e.g. GPT-6 Sol, Astra) correlate with account-wide resets to encourage developer testing.
User Milestone AchievementsWeight: 8%
Crossing round-number active subscriber counts (e.g. 25M, 50M) triggers celebratory marketing resets.
San Francisco Working WindowWeight: 5%
OpenAI engineering team flushes cluster limits predominantly between 09:00 and 17:00 US Pacific time on weekdays.
Community Consensus IndexWeight: 4%
Aggregated developer chatter on GitHub discussions, Reddit, and Discord regarding server congestion.
Edge Buffer HeadroomWeight: 3%
Cluster-level latency benchmarks indicating available inference compute headroom across global data centers.
4. Realtime Ingestion & Pipeline Architecture
Our server runs automated polling tasks every 30 minutes:
1. X/Twitter Stream: Ingests real-time posts from monitored accounts via verified scraping proxies.
2. LLM Semantic Classifier: Runs zero-shot analysis on candidate tweets to distinguish banter from actual hard quota commitments.
3. Status Poller: Checks OpenAI status feeds and API response latency.
4. Static Compilation: Re-computes probability and updates all 10 language builds automatically with zero downtime.
